North korea hasn't had much luck with nuclear weapons. They seem to have the warhead technology, but the delivery system is still pretty limmited.
If they have another few years to work on it, and it seems no one wants to stop them so they will, it could become a threat in the future. But if they launch a nuke at anyone it'll probably be shot down and they will be bombed to oblivion before they knew it.
It isn't likely they could smuggle one anywhere important either, so that isn't a threat.
North korea is in a position right now that they shouldn't be making threats, but they still seem to think it's a good idea.
True dat, I understand Kim Jong-Il is pretty extreme, but even he should have the minimum intelligence required to understand that shooting anybody at all (not even with nukes, just with anything) will most likely bring doom to his country. I mean, launch any attack at all and Japan, South Korea and the USA are very likely to retaliate by declaring state of war. USA have said that it would defend South Korea should it be attacked.
It would be indeed interesting to see what would happen if they launched a nuke at somebody and that it was shot down. I wonder what exactly would be the reaction: immediate response to take down the regime? declaration of war and attacks from all sides? Hmm...
Besides, we have to remember that while China isn't really pro North-Korea, they would prefer it to remain in place. China doesn't want a united Korea, which would be the most likely long term outcome of a North-Korea vs. JP/USA/SK war. Such a united Korea would be very damageable to China's prosperity. Right now, North Korea is not threatening to China, and it makes South Korea accordingly weaker.
Furthermore, with sanctions already in place and more being discussed by the UN, I can't really see how Kim Jong-Il expects his people t- oh no hang on, that's right, he doesn't care about his people.
Even if done in jest, I'd like to point out that Korea and North Korea shouldn't be used interchangeably. "Korea" is generally used to refer to the Repulic of Korea, aka South Korea, which is a rather pleasant country as opposed to its northern counterpart.
all this is is a show of defiance - a toddler having a temper tantrum if you like - because Kim Jong-Il is about to peg it and they desperately want to show the world that he is still very much in command
IMO USA is just waiting(or not ) for N.Korean offensive move, so they can wipe them from the planet. Sure... they could attack them now and i wouldn't be against it(and some nations would appriecate it)... ha... i would even appreciate that somebody would finnaly take care of that regime and this loonie. I just can't understand the logic behind Kim... whoever... moves. Oh... and noone would post anything from NK... couse civilians don't have internet there (except those at power).
Edit. I've just read the polish site of N.Korean Embassy... LOL... they even do propaganda in other nations .
Edit. There is one danger... what if NK after the attack would make one crazy move and.... bombard Seul from their artillery?
Not going to happen. N Korea is backed by China, and it has the third largest army in the world. Even though they are comparatively badly equipped, it's nothing the US, or a coalition of western forces could blitz through.
Also, the US are already in two wars at the moment, so I really can't see them going for a military operation.
With Russia and China's relations with North Korea it complicates the situation. Both China and Russia have supported North Korea for a long time (providing arms, money, training etc), so an attack on North Korea would almost certainly provoke a response from China and/or Russia. However, the behaviour that has been seen in the recent past (underground nuclear testing, long(er) range missile testing etc) was not looked on favourably by Russia and China. Perhaps they are beginning to question the ability of the North Korean government as it stands now?
The world police don't like closed communities, and those that don't conform to their own ideals on how life should be, North Korea is one of these rogue states.
Well it all depends... Russia and China are not to keen to accept NKorean's goverment actions, and if NKorea will make an offensive move against NATO/ONZ/Japan/SKorea, they(Russia and China) surely wouldn't blindly support NKoreans offensive. About the army... it does't only have v.weak equipment, it propably has very weak morale. Their army is huge, but their military capabilities are small. What Korea might use is biological weapons, but i've heard on one military forum that SKorean army is well equippped to defend from biological attack.
Edit. Yeah... "US are already in two wars at the moment" <-- that might be the problem. I wouldn't like to see USA economy ruined totally... couse then our world balance would be disturbed, as there wouldn't be anyone with enought power to match Russia/China.
I too doubt they would openly support N Korea in an actual war, but that wouldn't mean that they wouldn't get valuable support from both russia and china in other means.
And concerning Iran: I do hope that this rises to a full blown revolution that would bring democracy to an islamic theocracy from within, rather than sending an army to do that job.
I agree, although there will be a lot of civilian casualties :/. I've read today that there are rumors that some of generals in Iran are thinking about joining protestants. I hope it all will end in... low in deaths revolution.
Could You give me a link or say something about this? I'm rather interested.
It has been well proven that the US army (and just about every regular army in the world) is completely useless when going up against fighters using guerilla tactics, so if the US was to begin an attack against North Korea and the defenders resorted to guerilla tactics, the US army would have one hell of a problem subduing North Korea.
Although they are backed by China, China did condemn their last nuclear test, perhaps China will get uneasy about its neightbour getting a bit too powerful for their liking.