I'm really not sure what you're pursuing here as a whole? Seems to be a whole lot of effort for nothing really
I think it's pretty clear that the tyre wear itself has no direct physical influence on the car's performance (in LFS). All the factors you're speculating about here are far to small to have any serious impact on laptimes, compared to the uncertainty factor that is human control, or other actually big factors like tyre temperature or fuel weight. If there was an artefact, a physics oddity, then somehow it would have to be big enough that untalented drivers (relatively speaking) benefit from it, too, for it to be "noticed" so widely. And if it were that big, you'd see all world record laps taking 60+ laps beforehand to wear down the tyres to get this then very tangible advantage of having worn tyres, and I'm pretty sure hotlappers do anything to set a WR
Honestly, I think it's more to do with ones mind than having an actual physical reason. You want to believe... no, you know that a worn tyre makes you faster so in the end you are faster. Suddenly in your mind the worn tyre actually made you faster, whereas it was probably just you believing in yourself resulting in better driving. And with that you have the self-reinforcing "evidence" of worn tyres making someone faster, where there can hardly be found any measurable effect of tyre wear itself.
Comparisons of LFS to real life are also somewhat useless. While LFS is quite good and complex in general, if you start going into the details you just notice more and more areas that very much matter for racing are only very roughly approximated if simulated at all. Tyre heat and wear is (officially) a very WIP part of the simulation, with most behaviour being barely more than educated guesses. I could now list all the obvious deficiencies of LFS' tyre model, but really there's no point. Making a fully abstract model of a tyre where in the end the correct behaviour just falls into place is, while noble, not really realistic in terms of being a reachable goal either.
Right now, I think LFS in terms of realism is so close, yet so far.
I think it's pretty clear that the tyre wear itself has no direct physical influence on the car's performance (in LFS). All the factors you're speculating about here are far to small to have any serious impact on laptimes, compared to the uncertainty factor that is human control, or other actually big factors like tyre temperature or fuel weight. If there was an artefact, a physics oddity, then somehow it would have to be big enough that untalented drivers (relatively speaking) benefit from it, too, for it to be "noticed" so widely. And if it were that big, you'd see all world record laps taking 60+ laps beforehand to wear down the tyres to get this then very tangible advantage of having worn tyres, and I'm pretty sure hotlappers do anything to set a WR
Honestly, I think it's more to do with ones mind than having an actual physical reason. You want to believe... no, you know that a worn tyre makes you faster so in the end you are faster. Suddenly in your mind the worn tyre actually made you faster, whereas it was probably just you believing in yourself resulting in better driving. And with that you have the self-reinforcing "evidence" of worn tyres making someone faster, where there can hardly be found any measurable effect of tyre wear itself.
Comparisons of LFS to real life are also somewhat useless. While LFS is quite good and complex in general, if you start going into the details you just notice more and more areas that very much matter for racing are only very roughly approximated if simulated at all. Tyre heat and wear is (officially) a very WIP part of the simulation, with most behaviour being barely more than educated guesses. I could now list all the obvious deficiencies of LFS' tyre model, but really there's no point. Making a fully abstract model of a tyre where in the end the correct behaviour just falls into place is, while noble, not really realistic in terms of being a reachable goal either.
Right now, I think LFS in terms of realism is so close, yet so far.