I see shift lights are a bit misunderstood and maybe overrated here, some of the people who posted have probably never pushed a real life engine and don't know what it feels like, or their RL experience is limited to 1 or 2 cars.
First of all, yes you can judge when to shift either with the tachometer or by feel/sound. No you won't get it right the first time you drive a car, but as you learn it you learn where to shift. Basically not even a dyno is needed, giving full throttle from low revs up to the limiter in 2nd or 3rd gear (or even 1st depending on the power) will give you a good idea of where the engine starts pulling and where it stops. So basically, without being too accurate initially you have to keep the engine inside that RPM area. Usually you need to shift very near peak power, but not much past it especially when the engine is peaky as the power drops dramatically after peak power RPM. Then you need the next gear to be "in the power", meaning the RPM should be after peak torque. That's the very general rule. The point that each gear is different is not really valid, cause when you setup a race car, what you strive to achieve with the gearing except the correct top speed for the track, is even spacing between the gears, exactly to not have this problem. In road cars the gears are also usually pretty much evenly spaced, except maybe the top gear in some cars. As for not being able to calculate ideal shift points by feel, that is partly true, a mathematical analysis and calculation will be more accurate, but is really not needed, it's overkill as Tristan said.
Now, regarding the actual shift lights. Most race cars use preset RPM lights for the reasons I stated above. There are dynamic lights, but they don't work like in LFS, they don't calculate the ideal shift point, they can just be set to come on at different RPMs depending on the gear you're in. The calculation of the ideal shift point for each gear will still have to be done by you. As for beeping lights... Well. I have only ever come across two cars with those in my life, they are completely pointless, redundant and distracting. No they are not preferred by racing drivers, and no they are not common in F1. Also, shift lights IRL are not set to come on at the ideal shift point, they are set to come on just a bit before that, so by the time you react to it and reach out to shift, you are at the shift point. That's why you can see in race cars, the driver usually in high gears (where the acceleration is slower) will wait a couple of seconds after the shift light comes on before shifting, to let the RPMs build up to the shift point. The exception is when the car has a row of lights (like F1 cars) to alert you the shift point is coming up. In that case, last shift light comes on=ideal shift point.
While not all drivers (even top level ones) can always get the most out of their engines (some are better than others), any good driver after a short time in a car can judge when to change gear. More precisely, after shifting he can easily spot if he has shifted either too soon or too late. Maybe he can't get it within 100 RPM of the ideal shift point, but he can get it as close as makes no difference.
Ultimately IMO, shift lights are only really necessary on high powered cars, where sometimes you can have a hard time keeping track of what's going on around you, controlling the car and monitoring the tachometer/sound/vibrations. Especially in the lower gears where the acceleration will be very fierce and the RPMs will build up very fast while it might take a lot of concentration to put all that power down.
That's all, thanks for reading this far.