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Poll : Man-made Global Warming (AGW) Your confidence in the science:

-5 : AGW denier
33
-3 : Reasonably suspicious
24
-4 : Very suspicious
21
+3 : Reasonably confident
14
0 : Undecided
14
-2 : Moderately suspicious
14
+4 : Very confident
12
+5 : AGW believer
11
-1 : Slightly suspicious
10
+2 : Moderately confident
4
+1 : Tending towards confidence
4
Just read this, its about how the world (and all its plants) breathe.
http://www.spiegel.de/wissensc ... tur/0,1518,704816,00.html

it links to a site containing these short reports
Quote :Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the largest global CO2 flux driving several ecosystem functions. We provide an observation-based estimate of this flux at 123 ± 8 Pg C a–1 using eddy covariance flux data and various diagnostic models. Tropical forests and savannahs account for 60%. GPP over 40% of the vegetated land is associated with precipitation. State-of-the-art process-oriented biosphere models used for climate predictions exhibit a large between-model variation of GPP’s latitudinal patterns and show higher spatial correlations between GPP and precipitation, suggesting the existence of missing processes or feedback mechanisms which attenuate the vegetation response to climate. Our estimates of spatially distributed GPP and its covariation with climate can help improve coupled climate–carbon cycle process models.

Quote :The respiratory release of CO2 from the land surface is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, antipodal to photosynthetic CO2 uptake. Understanding the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate–carbon cycle feedback. Here, we approximate the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to air temperature (Q10) across 60 FLUXNET sites using a methodology that circumvents confounding effects. Contrary to previous findings, our results suggest that Q10 is independent of mean annual temperature, does not differ among biomes, and is confined to values around 1.4 (±0.1). The strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, instead, is highly variable among sites. Overall, the results partly explain a less pronounced climate–carbon cycle feedback than suggested by current carbon cycle climate models.

all in all, the CO2 seems to have a lesser impact on the climate than thouught
lolin' pretty hard at "citizen scientists"
Quote from DeadWolfBones :lolin' pretty hard at "citizen scientists"

That's just individuals practicing the good old scientific method.

A recent post on another blog sums it up pretty well...

Quote :
Scientific Method in its basics is actually extremely simple, it is not something remote that only The Elect can practice. In its most basic form it means looking at the evidence, carefully and thoroughly, for yourself, rather than taking someone else’s word for things. It also means watching yourself carefully enough to ensure that your assessment is not clouded by your own emotions or prejudices.

It's true that last year every single expert who gave their prediction on summer Arctic ice minimum, guessed way too low. The extent turned out to be much higher (less melt) than any of these guys expert opinions. Not one of them went the other way to suggest that there would be less melt than there actually was. Not one.

Other people (non experts), looking at the same data, somehow came to more accurate conclusions. Were these people more or less informed than the experts. Well... they had the same data to go on. Were they less biased and less willing to fly with the conventional AGW narrative of an 'Arctic death spiral', as Mark Serreze, head of the NCISD likes to promote? Probably.

The limited amount of satellite data for the Arctic and the limited amount of understanding about the processes and patterns involved suggests that no-one knows with any certainty what might happen up there. When no-one knows what's going on, does an expert opinion really count any more than a well informed lay opinion? The experts tend to want to draw straight scary lines for short term trends and whip people into a panic (30 years of sat data for the Artctic and any record in that data becomes the first ever, the worst ever, unprecedented melt!!! etc), but where was the last time you ever saw a straight line in any natural process? How relevant and meaningful is 30 years of data which exists inside a 60 year natural cycle? Adopting the scientific method allows one to formulate that comment- it's just looking at things a little more dispassionately and rationally, and that's it.

So, whether it's Mark Serreze yelling 'we're all gonna die!', or Jeremy Clarkson poo pooing climate change... these opinions aren't really interesting to anyone choosing to adopt the scientific method and taking the time out to look at things for themselves. They mightn't get to any hard conclusions, but they will be able to atleast see through some of these hard conclusions being presented by experts and influential personalities, because they've checked. They're open to discovery.

Citizen science is really just science itself. It excludes nobody who keeps to the standards and rigour of the scientific method.
PS, regarding the 'experts' thing. You will see that both Mike Hulme and Judith Curry have now been demoted from expert to denier by the political crowds. This was in my comment to the Guardian (looking over it again I wonder if it doesn't actually read so well.. it was very late when I wrote it).

This is hilarious because in atleast Mike's case, I'm sure that people are as alarmed as they are mainly in part attributable to him (he was the head of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Studies and an enormously important figure, right there at the beginning of the whole climate change issue).

The notion of an expert here seems to be very much connected to a persons opinion rather than to the depth of that persons knowledge, expertise and experience. I see time and time again people with meagre credentials being portrayed in the media as 'climate change experts', which I can only attribute to that persons ability to re-enforce the main AGW narrative (the ice is melting, the polar bears are dying, it's all our fault, etc). It happens all the time.

So.. I can 'lol' pretty hard at some of these 'experts'. It doesn't mean that the real experts are incompetent but you gotta realise how experts are chosen in this debate, because it certainly isn't cut and dry and there's a ton of politics and media manipulation going on, as I'm sure you know.


Quote :Originally Posted by Framaris
So now if the so said scientific community aggravate the facts to fight those big machines (corporate and government) and make us realize that we can’t go on living like this…so be it!

"Ask not what we can do f ... hange can do for us" - Mike Hulme
I've not been around much recently, so I've a bit of catching up to do.
Quote from DeadWolfBones :lolin' pretty hard at "citizen scientists"

I've been involved in a debate recently between sceptics and climate scientists, hosted by Keith Kloor, which explores naming conventions in the sceptical spectrum. The discussion is launched from David Brin's op-ed in Skeptic Magazine. I first saw the term "citizen scientist", there, used by Judith Curry. I don't know the original source of the term, but it may be Judith.

Another term, and one which probably better encapsulates the sceptic camp, is "climate science reformer". Reformers, in this context, are rejecting postnormal concepts (eg. computer model=experiment and observation, scientific consensus=mass of veracity, advocacy=scientific pursuit etc) which climate science depends on and assert instead that scientific method, which has been the foundation of science since the days of Copernicus and Galileo, should be restored and reasserted. The term "reformer" in the context of climate science has been coined in the thread I've been participating in but I think it's broadly accepted/acceptable to both sides and will probably enter the scientific papers and into history books. Curry is writing a paper on this now, so it will be interesting to see what transpires.

It's very quickly become apparent in the discussion that the distinction between "exploratory science" and "regulatory science" - that is essentially the distinction between academic science and science in industry - is one of the main dividers between pro-AGW and AGW-sceptic positions. Regulatory scientists (civil, mechanical, software etc. engineers) are broadly sceptical of climate science.

Briefly back on to the subject of "Amazongate", the source of the assertion in the IPCC is finally revealed - and has been conceded by WWF. It turns out to have been a small climate action advocacy group's website (now defunct):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/com ... -we-reach-the-source.html
Quote from SamH :
I first saw the term "citizen scientist", there, used by Judith Curry. I don't know the original source of the term, but it may be Judith.

Very well could be Sam. If I recall correctly, Judith ruffled a few feathers in her early dealings with the sceptics on Steve's blog by calling them 'deniers'. I think it was fairly innocent, but it did highlight at the time for some the cultural/class divide between scientists and sceptics and how there was this almost unconscious 'holier than thou' attitude leaking through from various parts of the established climate science world. Judith has smartened up her language a lot since then and has thus gained an enormous amount of respect from sceptics and the more disinterested observers.

I'd agree that the term 'reformer' has a nice ring to it, even with the faint religious overtones...
The more I listen to climate scientists talk among themselves, the more I realise how climatology is a belief system. There is far less science going on and far more political ideology being promoted. It's actually quite shocking to see, but it adds weight to the "reformer" term.

In the discussion I've been following, there have been quite a few "threats" made to Judith by ardent activist climate scientists, not even thinly veiled, that she is at risk of being ostracised and her standing being diminished in the community, simply because she's willing to engage with the sceptical community and consider their concerns. Where I come from, this is the activity of a religion and it's termed "ex-communication". Judith has also been broadly labelled "denier" by many prominent climatologists, and this has direct parallels with the cry of "heretic".

I think, since Climategate, Judith has come to realise that much of the data she's worked with historically may not have the solid foundation she'd believed it had. Many climatologists work in very focused and specific fields of expertise, and don't have much awareness of the bigger picture. It was definitely news to Judith Curry, when Climategate hit, that there might be any foundation to the accusations that the sceptics had been making.

She visited Climate Audit but, she says, was out-faced by the volume of information - Steve McIntyre is meticulous but verbose at times, and there is a hell of a lot to know. So she bought and read "The Hockey Stick Illusion" and, I think, became a sceptic convert. She's definitely only recently discovered the extent that post-normalism has infected climate sciences, and she's definitely a traditional "hard science" thinker. She values scientific integrity and she supports rigour in the scientific method. This is very specifically what separates her from the rest of the climatological community.
Quote :I think, since Climategate, Judith has come to realise that much of the data she's worked with historically may not have the solid foundation she'd believed it had. Many climatologists work in very focused and specific fields of expertise, and don't have much awareness of the bigger picture. It was definitely news to Judith Curry, when Climategate hit, that there might be any foundation to the accusations that the sceptics had been making.

I see that a lot of climatologists simply accept the temperature data at face value, and in a debate where 10ths of degrees matter- I found this hard to understand. I think that's when I started to get a clue about this stuff personally, when Anthony's surface stations project was really starting to get underway. It seemed that, if he wasn't being ignored, he was being treated with hostility and hastily dismissed as a crackpot by the warmist blogs. As someone just looking in, I found this lack of curiosity from the warmist side telling. They simply didn't want to know, and attacked Anthony for displaying simple scientific curiosity. He was the one who was actually going out there and checking the quality of the surface stations. Even as a non scientist, I could see that what Anthony was doing was science, and what the warmist blogs were offering in contrast was simply a willful ignorance about the potential quality issues relating to the temp data, I could only guess because the data was already telling them what they wanted to hear.
I think you're exactly right on all counts. Anthony's surfacestations.org project was a good and honourable exploration of the integrity and accuracy of surface stations in the USHCN.

It should have been embraced by the climate science community, and even promoted by it. But the reaction that he DID get was far more telling. Initially they lambasted Anthony because they were introducing the CRN, but since Anthony switched to CRN ratings and still found 98% of USHCN network stations below CRN1 rating, all I've heard from them is greater and greater ad hominem attacks.

It's the long history of ad hominem attacks from scientists, against anyone that challenges the "consensus view" (that isn't even a consensus!) that really set alarm bells ringing in my head.
New paper just out casts serious doubt on the ability of Michael Mann's proxy reconstructions in determining historical temperatures.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/201 ... -wicket-of-mann-et-al-99/

This is great independent confirmation/vindication of Steve McIntyre's work. For example, the paper states:

Quote :In other words, our model performs better when using highly autocorrelated noise rather than proxies to ”predict” temperature. The real proxies are less predictive than our ”fake” data...


...We are not the first to observe this effect. It was shown, in McIntyre and McKitrick (2005a,c), that random sequences with complex local dependence
structures can predict temperatures. Their approach has been
roundly dismissed in the climate science literature:


It will be very hard from now on for the Climate Science/Paleo community to ignore these findings. Some people are already noticing a recent and uncharacteristic downplaying of the importance of the hockey stick by high profile climatologists (for instance, Gavin Schmidt has just bizarrely claimed that the question of medieval temperatures was an uninteresting one, scientifically).

Maybe this means that we'll start seeing a few less climate related headlines in the media with the word 'unprecedented' in them. God I sure hope so.
I think there's just you and me left in this thread, Electrik Kar!

I read that paper last night.. brilliant read. I'm not a capable statistician at all, but I've been able to follow all the points made in the paper. It's a proper smack-down of Mann, I'd say.

I've been pretty active in Keith Kloor's threads over the last few weeks. Gavin Schmidt even turned up to try to defend the hockey stick, but he just couldn't make his arguments stick. Each one of his wriggles was exposed and busted - mostly by Judy. We've not really got down to exploring this latest paper yet, but I'm pretty sure when we do it's going to be a rough ride for the warmists to try to defend the stick in the face of some new peer-reviewed statistical expertise.

For years Mann et al tried to make Steve McIntyre out to be a crackpot, but there's absolutely no mileage in that any more because he's no longer the only statistician looking at this, and his conclusions have now received lots of well-rounded independent statistical affirmation.

I bet Steve slept well last night
You mean this thread? I thought that one might be a good one to post on here alongside the Judy Curry one previously at Keith's, but I'm also starting to feel that people are losing interest in this stuff. Anyway, was actually decent of Gavin to allow an interview outside the comfort zone of his own RC blog, although I too felt his arguments were fairly weak. Amazingly he just keeps on keeping on... but that's Gavin.

You've probably just heard they're getting serious in NZ over the NIWA temp adjustments?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-pre ... -data-accuracy-challenged

Ken Stewart has also finished his analysis of the Australian BOM adjustments to our own data (the 'high quality' record as opposed to raw). His final conclusion is an introduced 40% warming bias to the data via individual station adjustments. The BOM's official line is that any changes are basically random and therefore will tend to equalise out across the board. But Ken's analysis shows otherwise... (no way as severe an alteration as the NZ data, but significant and interesting in its own right).



http://kenskingdom.wordpress.c ... d-part-8-the-big-picture/


PS, which name do you go by on the climate blogs? I don't think I've ever seen a SamH. I'm just a 'Stu'
No, people are reading it but the " aaahhh, your a looney" brigade can't argue with the info actually being made publc.
Quote from Racer X NZ :No, people are reading it but the " aaahhh, your a looney" brigade can't argue with the info actually being made publc.

Hmm.. nah I reckon people have lost interest. It's a very strange argument really, this fight over 10ths of a degree. It's incredible how much energy has gone into this over the last 20/30 years or so. It's actually really bizarre.

I'm just interested really in clarifying a few simple questions. The question 'how much has it warmed?', isn't nearly as interesting as the question 'how much can we rely on what our data are telling us about how much it's warmed?'. To me, that question should really come first before drawing any hard conclusions or getting too excited. It's a fairly straight forward and logical question to ask. The arguments over the hockeystick and the issue of the NIWA temperature data are examples of the asking of this question. There are many others. The problem for the warmers/warmists/whatever is that these questions are now being asked in a very straight forward fashion by fairly normal people. This NIWA court case thing is a very extreme and unfortunate example in the search for answers to some basic questions of science. It shouldn't have come to this, it shouldn't have happened- but on the other hand it's not surprising- this has been a nonsense situation from the beginning, this weird socially engineered climate where asking questions has you pegged as some kind of moral degenerate...

And to be honest, I have a lot of 'green' friends, and I hesitate to talk about 'climate change' (although I'm genuine in my opinions). My politics might actually agree with a lot of the things the climate change movement is trying to accomplish, but I've long given up on it as a social issue and prefer to take it on instead as a personal interest/hobby. It's fairly abstracted away from issues of social policy and that kind of thing. I'm more just interested in how the Arctic/Antarctic sea ice is doing.
This thread is relatively quiet because there isn't much else to say, the powers that be have decided that global warming is fact and even in our supposedly free modern democracy the average man on the street still has no power over how his country is run, even if those in power are so clearly wrong. That is if the average man in the street even cared, until climate legislation really starts to properly hurt the people will continue to believe what the man tells them, when even harder hitting legislation is passed skepticism may grow amongst the public. As Electrik says above people aren't really interested at the moment.

The problem with conspiracy theories and whistleblowing etc is that to a lot of people it just presents a new and edgy market to make money out of through books or articles and public appearances, this means that along with the conspiracy theories that actually turn out to be true there really is a lot of looney rubbish and hypocrites simply along to make money, for example there are theories such as this which have growing scientific evidence and professional support behind them and then there are people such as David Icke claiming our overlords are Lizards in disguise with the sketchiest of evidence and coincidences. You may think sometimes that you're on to a real smoking gun when its just another corporate hack selling you an alternative spin on things. This dosen't apply to every case, but then of course as with everything conspiracy theorists get tarred with the same brush. With so many ways to spread information and make money now its never been harder to chose who to trust. Although going by recent performance the state is probrably not a good place to start.
Quote from SamH :I read that paper last night.. brilliant read. I'm not a capable statistician at all, but I've been able to follow all the points made in the paper. It's a proper smack-down of Mann, I'd say.

ok so let me get this straight
the idea of being a citizen scientist is to read papers (i rather doubt you actually read through the 45 pages (especially in one night... i read papers regularly and its completely impossible to understand more than maybe 10 pages of a properly written paper in one night)... i sure havent got the time to read all of that) you dont understand and are completely unable to reproduce the math of yourself due to that lack of understanding and knowledge and then to overstate the importance of that one paper because it fits your view?
is that about correct?

Quote from DeadWolfBones :lolin' pretty hard at "citizen scientists"

Quote from Electrik Kar :New paper just out casts serious doubt on the ability of Michael Mann's proxy reconstructions in determining historical temperatures.

The link doesn't work (page not found).
Quote from SamH :I read that paper last night.. brilliant read.

Does that mean that the writing style is good, or that the scientific results are correct? I guess it's the former, since you continue with
Quote : I'm not a capable statistician at all

..., which would mean you're not able to verify the correctness. AGW is all about statistics. I have an MSc in math, but in a different specialisation. I'm pretty damn sure I can't tell correct results from shoddy work in this area.
Quote from Shotglass :...

Quote from wsinda :...

So, let me get this straight, you need a degree on the subject to actually understand whatever it is you are reading? F*ck off...

I can tell you, I don't need to read a lot of scientific papers to understand that individual governments and NGO's are covering up big time. It's people like you and wsinda with your "I'm smarter than you" bullshit, that think the lesser "educated" just don't have the understanding to know what's going on. It's people like you who are keeping this propaganda bullshit alive... attempting to intimidate anyone who can't flash a degree or whatever...
Quote from U4IK ST8 :So, let me get this straight, you need a degree on the subject to actually understand whatever it is you are reading? F*ck off...

I can tell you, I don't need to read a lot of scientific papers to understand that individual governments and NGO's are covering up big time. It's people like you and wsinda with your "I'm smarter than you" bullshit, that think the lesser "educated" just don't have the understanding to know what's going on. It's people like you who are keeping this propaganda bullshit alive... attempting to intimidate anyone who can't flash a degree or whatever...

There's no need for that kind of tone.

This isn't an argument about a group of people having more understanding than another group. If anything it's an opportunity to offer up some humility and modesty over the limits of knowledge in the face of bewildering complexity. You know, the known unknowns and all that..
Quote from U4IK ST8 :So, let me get this straight, you need a degree on the subject to actually understand whatever it is you are reading? F*ck off...

Hah.
Quote from U4IK ST8 :So, let me get this straight, you need a degree on the subject to actually understand whatever it is you are reading? F*ck off...

I can tell you, I don't need to read a lot of scientific papers to understand that individual governments and NGO's are covering up big time. It's people like you and wsinda with your "I'm smarter than you" bullshit, that think the lesser "educated" just don't have the understanding to know what's going on. It's people like you who are keeping this propaganda bullshit alive... attempting to intimidate anyone who can't flash a degree or whatever...

What's such a damn shame about the whole AGW debate is that it has become a political issue. Everybody is taking sides, and I fear that most of them base their decision on which side they trust. Do you trust the scientific authorities or do you mistrust them? Do you believe the skeptics or do you mistrust their motives or abilities?

It's a shame, because it should be a scientific question. The data, models and calculations should be open for discussion, accessible for everyone to read and check. That's how the debate should be held. I hate all these accusations about emails proving cover-ups, or about skeptics being sponsored by large corporations. Let's stick to facts and figures.

But the science does get pretty complicated. Scientific questions usually do. You don't necessarily need a university degree, but you do need to think long and hard.

As to myself, all I know is that I haven't spent enough time studying AGW to have a well-founded opinion about it. I'm undecided. And to me it's a mystery how other people in this thread can be so sure of their views.

So, U4IK ST8, what do you base your certainty on?
Quote from U4IK ST8 :So, let me get this straight, you need a degree on the subject to actually understand whatever it is you are reading? F*ck off...

have you ever actually read a paper? if its the usual type you need a degree and at least a couple of months worth of work on the specific subject the paper is about just to understand half of the abstract
and it usually goes downhill from there as ive read many papers that take days worth of work before youve fully understood the content (which usually requires you to read a few of the referenced papers and then some of the ones referenced in those and it just explodes from there... eventually you end up with some fundamental math book and a stack of paper with your scribblings to work though all of the different notations used in different sciences and parts of the world which mean the same in confusingly different ways)
and were talking 8 page max papers here
also note that all of this is only possible after studying several years as any less will leave you without the necessary background to understand the math behind the paper

so someone who freely admits that he hasnt got the first idea about statistics claiming that hes read understood and was able to form an oppinion about a 45 page long statistics heavy paper in just one evening is simply laughable
The conclusions of the paper are understandable, and the paper itself is atleast readable (even providing a bit of history on the story so far) . My eyes blurred over at the statistics but these guys are professionals in their field and I didn't get past high school math. Of course I'm going to struggle. What's great about this paper is that all methods and data are laid out for anybody to check. You don't need to guess about what these guys have done. It's also the first major paper in a statistics journal that has seriously engaged the assumptions of Mann and others. This can only be positive as there was no prior communication with statisticians. There was the lone voice of Steve Mc and his contributors over at Climate Audit but that was really it- and the climate community ignored (publicly) Steve for as long as they possibly could. Perhaps this new paper will work to foster better communications across disciplines, but history as a guide I can only foresee climatologists bristling at the idea, which doesn't reflect well on climatologists in my book. It will be interesting to see.
Who has scientific qualifications and who dosen't does not make any difference to the truth. Just because a person is unqualified does not necessarily mean they are unable to see through lies. At the same time just because another person may have an impressive list of qualifications it dosen't mean they are only capable of telling nothing but the truth and are certain to never be corrupted by the corporate or political interests of others.

Many of those who are skeptical may not have sufficient credentials to be taken seriously by those in their almighty scientific ivory tower, but the fact that there is skepticism increasing within the professional and academic areas of science itself and not just amongst so called 'citizen scientists' must be worrying for the pro AGW brigade.

Perhaps it would be better to try and discredit the argument itself rather than the people who support it. Resorting to making personal comments is a very weak defence.

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