The issue they have with Monaco is it's so easy to bring out a waved yellow flag that this could be replicated every single year by a driver in provisional pole.
Whether it was on purpose? I don't know. I know he was down on his lap so taking an extra risk had no consequences. You either go faster or bin it and bring out the yellow flag. So maybe he took the risk knowing the consequences of bringing out a yellow flag wasn't THAT big a problem for him. So maybe not deliberate, but he had calculated the consequences I am sure.
There's enough there for a penalty but I wouldn't be surprised if the stewards don't have enough evidence. Reversing probably wasn't the best idea to hide his innocence though. That's what the stewards could get him on regardless of the 'mistake'.