M$ is not going to be giving Windows OS for free that's for sure. They get a lot of revenue and income from each PC that's being sold. They would be giving away billions if they'd give Windows for free.
They have such an overwhelming market share (especially in businesses) that there's really no need to give Windows for free as Linux is not a threat and Mac OS will not gain significant market share from what it currently enjoys for the foreseeable future.
For each new PC you need a new licence. They just want to make the adoption of Win10 faster to create a good buzz. They already got the licence income from the earlier versions so offering it as a free upgrade will not be a huge factor in lost revenue as when you upgrade your hardware sufficiently, like a new PC, you need a new license. Win 7/8/10 version doesn't matter as they usually cost the same. (and the faster they bring new versions the faster they can drop support from old versions and create the need to upgrade again...)
How much of that revenue is from enterprise though? Most consumers buy windows as part of their PC, which Microsoft sells to OEMs for insanely cheap. Enterprise is where all the real money is to be made.
I think it will end up free for consumer usage. Enterprise will continue having paid licences.
I doubt it, I'm getting Win 7 Pro for NZ$30 per licence from Microsoft. How much does the public pay ?. I'm really struggling though to see why M$ wants to give Win 10 away. When you look at the income streams their going to lose a HUGE % of their budget.
Extended support lasts till Jan 14 2020 so I'm not concerned ATM
I'd grab the upgrade, install Classic Shell (as the Start Menu is still crap on the latest beta) and see what happens.
Certainly free Windows is a better choice than Linux for most of my clients.
And, to cheat a bit, fresh HD, clean install, upgrade to 10, image, reinstall old HD
If the free upgrade is only for 1 year, I'd certainly recommend doing this. Just in case it cost's in future.
Enterprise as in server software etc is not included in the $19bil figure for Windows, it's another $20bil in revenue.
The Win 8 Pro licence costs around 80 eur when an OEM includes it on a PC. When you buy the OEM licence from say a distributor it costs now around 120 eur and again around 120 eur when you buy it with a new comp from a shop where you buy components separately (not much margin left for the reseller . (prices did not include VAT which is another 20+% or so on top)
The Win 10 will not be free if you're not upgrading. It will most likely cost the same as the Win 8 licenses currently. The pricing didn't change when Win 8 came out compared to Win 7... The Win 7&8 licences will be phased out by the end of this year. With Win 10 licence you will be able to install Win 8 still. The same way you are able to install Win XP if you have a Win 7 Pro licence.
Then there are exeptions that M$ might give to schools etc, but businesses and consumers pay the normal rate.