Well, in the wake of the Paris terror attacks (which themselves came on the heels of the Russian passenger jet disaster over the Sinai Peninsula and bombings in Beirut that killed 43), everyone involved apparently felt compelled to send some kind of message to the public regarding a collective desire to work towards a solution in Syria and so, the foreign ministers have now produced an amorphous “transition plan” for the country that calls for a meeting between Assad and “recognized” opposition groups followed by a cease fire within 6 months. Ultimately, there would be a new constitution and elections by the the end of 2017.
Here’s Bloomberg with more:
Seventeen nations, spurred on by Friday’s deadly attacks in Paris, overcame their differences on how to end Syria’s civil war and adopted a timeline that will let opposition groups help draft a constitution and elect a new government by 2017.
As a first step, the United Nations agreed to convene Syria’s government with opposition representatives by Jan. 1, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday at a joint press conference in Vienna. A cease-fire between the government in Damascus and recognized opposition groups should be in place within six months, according to their statement.
“It is time to deprive the terrorists of any single kilometer in which to hide,” Kerry said. “There can be no doubt that this crisis is not Syria’s alone to bear.”
Assad has “cut his own deal” with Islamic State,
(Complete rubbish, read this UK/US report about Turkey.) buying oil from the group and failing to attack militants, Kerry said.
(Kerry really is full of bovine excrement) Assad’s allies have conveyed that he’s prepared to be serious and engage in talks, but the “proof will be in the pudding,” he said.
Diplomats meeting in the Austrian capital also decided to place Islamic State, along with the al-Qaeda affiliated Nusra Front terrorist group, on a list of those subject to military strikes even when a cease-fire is in place. The list, managed by the Kingdom of Jordan, may later be expanded to include other groups in Syria, Kerry and Lavrov said.
The Paris attacks “show that it doesn’t matter if you’re for Assad or against him,” said Lavrov, “ISIS is your enemy.”
Well, maybe. Unless of course you view ISIS as a valuable destabilizing element that helps not only to keep Assad off balance but also to undercut Iranian influence in Iraq, in which case ISIS wouldn’t be your enemy. “Strategic asset” gone rogue, maybe. “Frankenstein” turned on its creators, maybe. But not exactly your “enemy.”
Here are the main points:
1 Month, or, by Dec. 14: Diplomats will reconvene to review progress
Jan. 1: UN will seek to convene Syrian government and opposition in formal negotiations
6 Months, or, by May 14, 2016: Cease-fire between Syrian government and opposition groups; process for drafting new constitution
18 Months, or, by May 14, 2017: Free elections administered by the UN held under the new constitution
Obviously this is just a concilliatory half measure (at best) designed to pacify a panicked public.
Need proof? Just look how excited Kerry and Lavrov are:
Make no mistake, there's no real "plan" here. What will almost invariably happen is that the US will go right back to dropping ammo to "moderates", the Saudis and Qatar will go right back to providing support to who knows which Sunni extremists in Syria, while Russia and Iran will go right back to eradicating anything that even looks like a rebel.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-15/syria-fixed-kerry-devises-farcical-transition-plan-russia-others
The real question - when you really sit down and think about it - is why, if the West is so determined to wipe out ISIS, Washington hasn't simply embedded 1,000 or so spec ops with the Kurds and marched on Raqqa, the ISIS capital. Kurdish forces just retook the Iraqi city of Sinjar (where ISIS displaced and terrorized the Yazidis last year) with relative ease under cover of US airstrikes. You can drive from Sinjar to Raqqa in less than six hours:
And it's not like the US has to worry about running into the Russians in the course of providing air cover. After all, Russia has for now pretty much conceded that airspace to the US while Moscow and Tehran restore Assad's power base in the West. Just take a look at the Russian airstrike map (it's not up to the minute, but you get the idea):
"The point is that this is completely farcical. Russia and Iran are doing exactly what they set out to do. That is, first they'll restore the Assad regime and stabilize the country by taking back major cities in the west, then they'll turn to ISIS in the east.
But what, may we ask, is the US doing? Look at the maps above, consider that the US and the Kurds just took back Sinjar in the space of something like 72 hours and ask yourself this: "What is The Pentagon waiting for?"
If Washington is serious about defeating ISIS, just send in 1,000 spec ops, gather up some YPG soldiers, fire up the air support (the Russians aren't even in the area), walk down to Raqqa, and just take it from them. It's almost like the US and America's regional allies don't want to the world to know what's down there."
(And, my comment here, - Actually, the simple answer is that Turkey wants to take out the Kurds, so the above is completely out of the question, and so the game goes on.....)
"Amidst protesters' chants of "Murderous ISIL, collaborator AKP," Erdogan finally agreed last Thursday to enter the US-led campaign against ISIS, sending fighter jets into Syria and granting the US strategic use of a key airbase in the southeast to launch airstrikes.
At the same time, Turkey began bombing Kurdish PKK shelters and storage facilities in northern Iraq, the AP reported, indicating that the AKP still sees Kurdish advances as a major — if not the biggest — threat, despite the Kurds' battlefield successes against ISIS in northern Syria."