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Lebanon and israel.
(115 posts, started )
Quote : Hezbollah may well have started this madness by attacking Israeli soldiers, but they didn't start firing their rockets at Haifa, Nazareth etc until after Israel ignored their offer of a prisoner swap and sent the Israeli air force to bomb Beirut's airport, fuel stations, power stations, roads etc. Collective punishment is a clear, blatant War Crime.

Chicken or egg? It's a long enumeration of back and forths between inhabitants of the region, all the way to precedents dating back centuries ago.
Who struck first is a negligible blame factor by now, and never was a sufficient criteria to settle the conflict. I mean, do we all move back to Africa and hand back the rest of the planet to animals or what?

Make no mistake, I don't back either the IDF nor Hizbola. I don't have a stake in either "side", I do agree any possible option to negociate should be taken up, like is Norway's habit.. They've gotten flak for that in the past and it's a good show of integrity.
But widening the scope to Iraq.. what are you saying? What about the rest of the "innocent" homo sapienses on the planet? You either include all of em, or consider some more prioritary than others.

You definitely can counter reference sources to sort out facts from suggestions or fabrication.. but that's still just armchair speculation. It's been true for a long time, and still is by the looks of things like the recent blatant AP & co fakes.
I don't have time to do that, and anything short of professional grade research on this particular matter wouldn't do the Truth justice. That's just work and I have enough of that at my job. That the media is so full of it, the selling out for exposure etc, that corruption's on the same page as corrupt politicians and every other blunder of that sort.
They buy into the business of war just as the crook politicians and terrorists.


Killing people without a just cause is absolutely wrong, make no mistake in my beliefs there... but I always get the feeling that these tirades against open war reflect a social glitch in human nature. People, save for a few exceptions, don't really care for morality.. they just want rules to fit their habits of comfort.. a blind adherence to "rules" doctus cum libro for a clear conscience.. they want some other guy to fight for them..

It's not that I'm pro military, but I know that in life you only get what you deserve.
Polishing your comfy leather sofa in your pretty home while others fight for what you enjoy is cowardice. I've yet to see a war I know oughta be fought, and have the opportunity to be there, but if tomorrow there was one, I'd enlist instantly.. no double standards there.

And before you imply something like it, yes I know there's other useful things besides martial action like what Hankstar is doing. I was >< this close to making a career out of "Medecins sans frontieres", but chose to do something else in the medical field that I'm better at.
I think something should be done to educate the public about the specific critical details of the issues at play, before they're voting or voicing their opinion on the matter.. because eventually it's all a matter of demographics. When you've got a big lump of effectively stupid people voting, proportionaly equal stupid things happen by action or inaction.
Erosion of american civil rights is a good example, but that's in the US, and no one here on this forum cares about the US, except to blame them for everything that's wrong in the world. The anti-american bias on this board just sticks out like a sore thumb, it ain't even funny.
The only country in Europe I have any experience in is France, and I could write a whole freakin novel about the moral inconsistencies in the "integration" between foreigners and natives there.. in just about any aspect of everyday life. Both sides are to blame for everything that happens there.
It's just easier to point at someone directly involved in a war and call him/her a freak than to acknowledge any fault as a "medics/UN don't hurt people" proponent.
I mean that you getting irate on a bbs about a war has little impact on those innocents' lives. Singling out one actor playing his/her part in the play is disingenuous, whether it's the IDF/Hezbola, Israel/Lebanon, USA/Syria/Iran or other indirect players.

On topic:
There's no simple answer but here is a very quick and dirty summary of how I would maybe go about it.

1. Encourage political and economic liberalisation in as many Arab states as possible. By this, I don't mean *forcing* democracy on them. That has to develop as a natural consequence of the liberalisation process or else it risks implosion. One of the elements most fundamental for a secular liberal democracy is a large and prosperous middle-class, which is a natural consequence of economic development. This is why there are so many problems in Iraq today, because the Ba'ath Party had largely co-opted the secular, professional classes, who then lost all their social status when the regime collapsed. This was the biggest single failure of the Iraqi operation; what we should have done was allied ourselves with the Ba'athists; not the Saddams but the mid level professionals, soldiers, civil servants, all the people who make a modern state function. Iraq is an unknown quantity now; the best we can hope for is that it remains stable long enough for civil society to take root again. Nevertheless, this should be the attitude to take with regard to places like Syria and Egypt. Economic development is what the west and the USA in particular does best; prosperous people don't turn easily to extremism, so focus on incentives that help raise the lives of ordinary people.

2. Kill as many of the extremist leaders as possible but do it quietly and without fuss. Don't go announcing our intentions on CNN or Fox, and don't claim credit when we kill one. The west holds all the aces when it comes to special forces, so use them. Otherwise train secularly-inclined muslims to kill them for us. I would also look at killing-off all of the Wahabist clerics in Saudi Arabia and I'd serve notice on the Saudi Royal family that the good times are over and unless they liberalise the Kingdom, we arm the Syrians, the Iraqis and the Egyptians and let them loose on the Sauds. The Saudi Sheiks are probably one of the most despised groups in the region; the other Arab states wouldn't need much encouragement, and most importantly of all, the rest of the Muslim world would see it as an internal arab matter and not the west imposing it's will on the muslims. This is important.

3. Get used to expensive oil. It isn't going to get any cheaper with a liberalised middle-east milking extraction for tax revenue. It's going to run out sooner or later anyway, so get used to using less or even better using alternatives. Stop propping up corrupt local elites for the purpose of guaranteeing cheap oil. That is one of the main causes of today's problems.

4. Cut the link between the hardcore of extremists and the masses from which they recruit. This means removing the percieved injustices with which they rally support. If they can't recruit they will whither and die. Solve the Israel-Palestinian problem once and for all. Use some of the $billions currently being spent on a Iraq to compensate all the jews displaced from arab countries and the arabs displaced from Israel. Stop worrying about who started the conflict and instead focus on what is needed to end it. This would undermine people like Hamas who depend on arabs being rat-poor and desperate for their popular support. As well as undermining the Islamists massively, it would also hurt the few the Israeli ideologues who like to keep a low-level conflict going in order to maintain their colonisation of the West Bank under the pretext of security. Both these groups want the conflict to on for as long as possible, so deal with it ASAP.

5. Recognise that when dealing with the Arabs, perception is everything. The main message of the jihadis is that Islam is under attack by the west. Unfortunateley, we have a habit of acting in ways that confirm this message. At every step of the way, it must appear that change is being driven internally, and that if blood needs to be shed, it must be presented as a muslim vs muslim affair.

6. Offer the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran in return for the ending of their nuclear program. The resulting economic stimulus would spell the end of the mullah's stranglehold over the urban poor and the impoverished middle-classes and you'd see genuine internal regime change there within a decade.

7. Have faith in western culture and its power to spread into the lives of these people, but don't force it down their throats. They must feel that they are adopting our ways of their own volition.

Like I said, quick and dirty, but It's Saturday eve and arguing this is boring me now.
What about my point-to-point refutation, Breizh?
Some of your points I'll concede, others you misunderstood what I was getting at, or are just moot/boring. Arguing it on a messageboard achieves nothing concrete which is a waste of time.

IMO the US would have been better off spending Iraq's x-hundred B$ in developing alternative energy sources, but what's the point of stating the obvious? Do I need to reassure you of it, and that I think so too, and that you or I have the last word or something?

I believe my last post was a sufficiently concise and precise description of what I think matters about this subject.. the rest would be subjective opinionated stuff like most of you having a big bleeding heart itch for any reason to blame straw men like the evil USA etc.
Hmm.. I'm sensing this thread may be about to degenerate into something other than it has been, so I'm going to grab this opportunity to thank EVERYONE who's been involved, in helping me gain a far more balanced and much more broad perspective on the whole situation in the Middle East than I would otherwise have achieved, and listening patiently to me while I vented colossal amounts of frustration at the current and developing situation.

I've benefitted from the discussion in this thread more than I can express, and I do genuinely appreciate the time everyone has committed to it with their fabulous and enlightening discourse, fascinating links to news sources, quotes and videos. Thanks everyone!
I understand what you're up to, Breizh. I won't go on with a point to point refutation of some of the things you wrote and of the armchair warrior rethorics, I think the lack of coherence with the attitude of your previous post is self-evident.
No, I don't think you see my point of view.. I mean, I take the time to write down what I think are the cruicial matters in the middle east, transparently enough that comparing and contrasting with your own point of view would be easy enough, but instead you want me to keep my point of view to myself and stick to your "point to point refutation"?
How is that coherent? PM me if you don't want to "pollute" the thread.

Otherwise knock yourself out with refuting those seven solutions.. I'm all ears.
No, I won't do that. I'll continue to check facts for myself as I've been doing for some years and leave conclusions to others, as I've been doing for all of my life. I have my ideas but I don't stick to them always, and I don't have to say them. My refutation was based on commonly accepted concepts, news, news commentary and on verifiable analisys: that's what I'm for. As a pragmatical dreamer I have to stick to what's possible, and nothing more.
Well I guess I ain't thru swingin' my hammer Hank

It looks to me that this multi national force and the Lebasnese Military presence
is gonna be one big farce. As I have said before, I support Israels right to defend itself, but I really don't think they did a very good job of that.
I think when Hezbolla yanked Olmert's chain he really wanted to impress those guys, but pretty much shot himself in the foot with indecisiveness and an apparent ignorance to overall strategy.
Oh well, round one is over and I think round two is gonna be even nastier
once hezbolla gets reloaded.
I think Hezbolla is now in a position to get real power - if they get rid of the militant factions... But then they'd get off of Iran's money train and
have to do some actual leg work to get real support. So I don't really see that happening.
I also think that this latest nonsense was originally a test of Israeli resolve
under Olmert's watch and then turned into a gauge for popular approval, thanks to Israeli reactions. So there will definately be another round IMO.
Swing low, sweet chariot

In Israel right now, many people (including press and IDF soldiers) are calling for Olmert's resignation and for other heads to roll over this ridiculous debacle. None of Israel's main goals (the disarming of Hezbollah, the return of the captured soldiers) were achieved and over 150 IDF soldiers were killed. The Olmert government represents a hardline, right-wing minority of Israeli people and it seems many Israelis are demanding people be accountable.

Quote from Kenneth Besig, Jerusalem Post :Fewer than 5,000 poorly-armed Hezbollah terrorists stood off the mighty IDF for over a month. An Islamic terrorist gang with no tanks, no artillery, no fighter jets, no attack helicopters, and just a few RPG’s and rifles held to a standstill nearly 30,000 crack IDF troops with the finest tanks, the best artillery, the fastest and most advanced fighter-jets and attack helicopters in the world. And they can still empty our northern communities with their rockets whenever they want. If that is not a victory, then the word has no meaning.

Textbook guerilla tactics (Kenneth's use of the word "terrorist" is open for discussion though). The same tactics were used by the French Resistance against the Nazis, the Viet Cong against the US, and by the (US-trained) mujahadeen guerillas (including Osama bin Laden) against the USSR in Afghanistan. Indeed, the very same tactics are currently being used against the US in Iraq by the insurgents. Pop up, hit the enemy hard, disappear. Use your home ground advantage and frustrate the enemy. Keep nipping at their heels and they'll make mistakes, both militarily and politically. The current US and Israeli governments are both dominated by extreme right-wing minority elements who seem removed from the wills of their respective populations, and are aggressively pursuing a strategy for regional dominance. They also seem far removed from reality itself if they think "shock and awe" displays of air power and military technology can defeat determined guerillas defending their home soil. I can only imagine how hard Americans would fight if Canada were bombing their cities in order to retrieve two captured Canadian soldiers (if, by some large stretch of the imagination, America were a military & economic underdog).

This interview with Ray McGovern, former CIA analyst, speaks volumes about the people currently in charge of the US (the "crazies") and the implications and potential consequences this Lebanese fiasco has or may have with regard to US/Israeli foreign policy and relationships with other nations. Doesn't exactly fill you with confidence when you think about what could happen if the US follows the "strategy for securing the realm" laid down by the "crazies".

If there is another round (and there's already been an Israeli commando raid since the cease fire was called), Israel may get much more than they thought possible. With so many dead women, children and other non-combatants in Lebanon, I can only imagine how many enraged, grieving Lebanese men or even boys have sought out local Hezbollah leaders and said "My family were killed in their beds by an Israeli bomb. Tell me where to find the militia and give me an AK-47. If the IDF come back, I'll be ready and I have nothing to lose." And come back they may - if Israel want to "win" this one, they will need to use ground troops. Air strikes are all very well to destroy buildings/people/equipment but to secure territory and effectively eliminate an enemy presence you need boots on the ground. I also wonder how many enraged Muslims from other parts of the region are making their way to Lebanon to join with Hezbollah's resistance? If Israel's government are sending troops back into Lebanon, they better be ready - both for a drawn-out guerilla campaign (which, historically, inevitably triumph over technologically, numerically and financially superior aggressors) and for a backlash at home which could see an overturning of the current administration. All guerillas have to do is outlast their enemy, not defeat them. Guerillas win simply by not losing and Hezbollah know this. It doesn't seem the current Israeli/US administrations do though.
Yeah, a key element for guerrilla forces is popular support.
Before all this happened, Hezbolla had marginal support at best.
That was before......

I must admit, I'm not too happy with Bush's handling of things either.
when he gave that big speech about the War on Terror and how difficult and time consuming it would be, I thought we were on the same page....
I think his idea of time consuming was to get it over with before the 2nd term.

I dunno. I knew that toppling Hussein was going to include an extended stay in the country by US forces (as in maybe decades)
The problem in Iraq though is quite a bit different than Israel/Lebanon.

The "insurgency", foreign militants that is seem to be more interested in causing civil war more than they are getting the US out of there.

Ugh... something came up & I gotta go...

Oh well for the most part this really has been an informative thread
"Not too happy" with Bush? You're very kind

I've been pretty much disgusted with his conduct starting from Florida 2000, through the invasion of Afghanistan, the PATRIOT Act(s), laughable colour-coded "terror alerts" (which never seem to be dip below orange), Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, illegal domestic wiretapping & all his other various breaches of international law & the US Constitution (which we swore to uphold, not defile) all the way to enabling Israel's assault on Lebanon. Although it's fair to say it's more likely that "his" conduct is just whatever Rove and Cheney tell him he should do...I don't think anyone who listens to those two worm-tongues and doesn't even read papers or watch the TV news can be trusted with billions of dollars and millions of lives, let alone with a military arsenal that would make Klingons nervous ...

I think the reasons for invading Iraq extend beyond what we've all been told by the US administration: the only WMD that were found were remnants left over from the '90s which were basically useless and which were sold to Iraq by the US in the '80s so they could use them on Iran; the connection to al-Qaeda did not exist to begin with as Saddam and Osama intensely disliked each other; the supposed Niger yellowcake incident never existed and the American diplomat who called the government on it had his CIA wife's cover blown for his trouble, putting her life and many other lives at risk; the atrocities & oppression which Saddam was guilty of could have been dealt with in 1991, but for some reason Bush Senior's posse decided to leave him in power after crushing his army. They also encouraged a rebellion against him afterwards but withdrew crucial support and left thousands of rebels and their family to their brutal fate at the hands of Saddam's Ba'ath party, in such places as Abu Ghraib...

I also think these "foreign fighters" are given way too much credit for stirring up sectarian trouble and for violence in Iraq in general. There are Sunni and Shiite militia running around settling old scores with each other right now and this destabilised Iraq, with its ineffective government and US-commanded Iraqi security forces, gives them the opportunity to conduct killings with impunity. I don't think they need much encouragement. From what I read atm, attacks on US troops are mostly carried out by local insurgents and not by opportunistic blow-ins from other countries - but that's not to say there aren't any sympathetic militiamen taking advantage of the opportunity to cross Iraq's unsecured borders to kill US troops. In fact I'm sure there are but I think they're definitely in the minority. There are enough Iraqis who wish to resist the occupation without needing to import people.

But that's OT, this isn't about the pResident, his constant stream of verbal bollocks or what his handlers tell him to do :bullwhip: :homersimp
Here is a nice clip showing how friendly the israeli army is towards UN-peacekeepers.(wonder how they act when there are no camera's or Un-troops ,only angry civilians...)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3XvOKjB_uU

Israeli tanks entered Lebanon ,against all UN-treaties ofc. So some finns in Pasi's got sent out to remove them from their AO. (after a 1hour deadline to pull back voluntarily had passed )
The israeli tanks simply ignore the orders and ram the UN APC's off the road.
I must say i respect the finns for doing this..most UN countries/troops would simply keep a safe distance and wait till the israeli's were finished with whatever they were doing there (even if their mandate clearly states that no israeli should be on Lebanse territory)

Now imagine these guys comming into YOUR land and killing your family ,friends ,neighbours together with destroying all infrastructure. Then watching 90% of the world media call u a terrorist when u throw a stone at one of these tanks. (same goes for afghanistan; iraq or the gaza-strip)
TBH i would'nt doubt 1second what to do if i found an unexploded bomb and had some of these idiots rampaging in my country.
I would almost wish UN-forces had a mandate to shoot israeli's who entered Libanon ,but ofc they are only there to stop the hezbollah "terrorists".
I read from another board that what happens in that video clip is completely normal situation and procedure.
It happens regularly yes..so the soldiers get used to it..but imo its far from a normall situation that israeli's still enter Lebanon whenever they want and ignore any UN presence.
It's a disgrace that the UN lets it's soldiers be pushed around like that and that nothing like this ever makes the news.
Quote from Noccy :It happens regularly yes..so the soldiers get used to it..but imo its far from a normall situation that israeli's still enter Lebanon whenever they want and ignore any UN presence.
It's a disgrace that the UN lets it's soldiers be pushed around like that and that nothing like this ever makes the news.

Just goes to show how ineffective and how little actual authority/respect the UN has,it's largely become a "cannot do jack" observer corps rather than an enforcement corps which I figure is the real aim of it's existence.

Lebanon and israel.
(115 posts, started )
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