They do suport it. Sociology is true. Pollsters who do these polls, know their job very well -- they do test their questions for bias, they did make different questions to detect different sentiment.
The argument that Russians are afraid of answering to polls, is a projection of intellectuals. Working class and people without degree (that's ~66% of population) don't see the world like a 1984 story and aren't that paranoid. Pollsters say they often started to speak more to them, and those who oppose the official position too.
Intellectuals' counter-arguments are demagogy -- they say "maybe people are afraid to speak?" and turn this supposition immediately into a quasi-fact to disprove decades of professional work of pollsters & sociologists. (I must point that in Russia, polls and sociology are considered one thing, while outside they are not.)
There's a big debate among sociologists on whether or not they make questions correctly, and what kind of bias the methods have. So any layman's claim that this is just "not true" is just a sign of total ignorance. Like a football fan believing he knows better how to coach a team.
The good news is that they don't support it actively. But active resistance is not on the horizon.
Apparently you do not live in Russia, which explains a lot. It's funny that when you disagree with my position, you don't offer any counterarguments. You just say no "that's not true"... and what do you expect me to argue with? Am I supposed to answer "no it's not true"? And then we're supposed to throw poop at each other?
Yes, you're right.. in Russia everything is so fair and correct, sociologists do unbiased surveys, and the police know how to catch criminals, judges know how to punish defendants fairly. Officials in russia know how to take care of citizens and of course they don't take bribes...
Sorry, maybe you put it strangely, but from the outside it looks like you don't know anything about Russia...
That's not what I said.
There are at least 3 factors in the fallacy of the poll results in Russia.
1. People with disagreeable opinions will refuse to take the poll. (Fear is one factor in this, most likely the deciding one, but not the only)
2. If people agree to take the survey, they may lie. (All people lie, even in relatively free societies. And they lie even more in authoritarian societies)
3. Faking or manipulating the results. ( Tampering with any results in Russia is common, both with elections and state sociology.)
Each of the three factors affects polling in Russia. And it is obvious to me why.
You haven't given a convincing argument as to why this or that is wrong. Maybe I misunderstood something, and if you have better arguments, I can agree.
Authoritarian societies are characterized by the things I wrote about above. I can't understand what your point is, that Russia is not an authoritarian state? Or that in spite of the fact that Russia is an authoritarian state, why does it drown in things that are characteristic of authoritarian states? Or what?
Lack of reasoning does not bring understanding to your position.
If you mean higher education (bachelor's degree) as it is called in russia then many of the working class in Russia have degrees, such as designers, engineers, technologists, and so on. Almost all such specialties require a higher education degree. Except for some janitors, cashiers, and so forth. And only those who do not have it 35% So it looks like your figure is taken from the ceiling. As we say in Russia.
And it’s not clear why you decided to take my separate take about the 1984 novel and pass it off as the universal position of all Russians or something, and as if passing it off as my position, you are replacing concepts, I didn’t talk about it. It's called the straw man fallacy.
I spoke about George Ourell's novel as an example to clarify my position .. If you ask 10 Russians what is happening in Russia, you can get 10 different answers. But this does not mean that, for example, most of them will not agree with certain aspects. for example, about the extremely high level of authoritarianism in Russia.
And for some reason you have decided that this part of the population "don't see the world like a 1984 story and aren't that paranoid" I doubt that there was a poll on this particular topic, but even if there had been, it does not invalidate what I said about false statistics based on polls in Russia.
First of all, referring to authority is not an argument.
Second, you don't seem to have read the article yourself, most of it talks about the failure of liberalism in Russia and explains the background and why it happened. Which I mostly agree with. But it is not clear why you referred to it here. I certainly can't call myself a liberal in the modern sense.
You don't need any articles to make an argument, they may be needed in an argument except to prove factual things.
Third, my native language is Russian...because I was born, raised and still live in Russia. I thought that the flag next to the name should be clear but you referred to the article in Russian and you suggest using an translator...
And if you wanted to make an argument about wishful thinking, then why can't I say the same for you? It's your lack of argument here. I am only talking about things that are characteristic of authoritarian and in particular totalitarian systems.
I like to study the history of my country (and not only), philosophy, and geopolitics. And I diligently avoid falling under any kind of propaganda. So yes.. I have some understanding of what is going on in my country.
I agree, but it doesn't change what I said.
let's raise the level of discussion and after some thesis we will give arguments to this thesis so that it would be clear what we are talking about.
My argument is simple, Russia at the moment is an authoritarian and in many ways a totalitarian country, and what happens in such regimes is characteristic of such regimes. And the main thing is silence, people who do not agree are silent, because they can do nothing else if they do not want to fill the prisons. And Fear of the part of the population that understands the situation. But not only to that part of the population. The lack of rights and freedoms, too, is objectively visible to everyone, and if you are faced with a state in the form of the police or judicial system, then no one can expect justice, and most people understand this. Brainwashing also plays a role. So does the torture system in prisons. And the police state built by Putin which is ready to meet anyone even on a solitary picket.
The silovik in Russia is not the protector of citizens, but the owner of the monopoly of violence, ready to use this violence at any time. i mean we've literally gotten to the point where people are put in jail for making jokes. Fear is understandable, because authoritarianism is based on fear.
All this is a background that forms a special atmosphere. And shapes people. And then there is not just a question of when a person lies or tells the truth. But also, for example, when a person lies to himself.
And I don’t understand why you think that people from this system will decently do work that will show them wrong. It is likely that honest sociological surveys of the population are also being conducted, but if so, then they are not public.
Давай я тебе доходчивее по-русски объясню. Во-первых, я 40 лет прожил в России, ходил на кучу протестов -- и в 12 году, и в 21-м, когда ментов было больше нас. Стоял с агитацией за навальнистов (общался с сотней прохожих в день и мнения их были примерно те, что описывает Гудков), писал программы кандидатам в мэры, когда ещё оставались выборы. Так что я достаточно знаю про политику и общественное мнение.
Что касается социологов, "всё в порядке, всё честно" -- ну да, "всей правды мы не узнаем". С таким подходом как ты веришь например тому ролику, что приводишь сам?
Что касается нечестности -- есть такая вещь как проф.репутация, и за 40 лет Левада-центр ни разу не вляпался в платные и фальсифицированные опросы. Гос-социологи, конечно, задают вопросы манипулятивно, но речь не о них.
Ты следуешь логике Шендеровича, который с дивана из-за границы считает, что в РФ "нет социологии". И ты так и не понял, кто такой Гудков и Левада-центр, если называешь его "человеком из системы".
Его статью я привёл, чтобы показать, что он угадал с прогнозом, и его мнение до войны соответствует тому, что после, и он не предрекал "агонии режима" как некоторые говорящие головы.
А так -- ну да, согласен с тобой, что страна тоталитарная, пропаганда везде. И Гудков про это же.
Расходимся мы вот в чём: ты утверждаешь, что люди не поддерживают войну. Гудков и я считаем, что они пассивно её поддерживают.
Окей, был не прав. Я забираю свои слова о том что ты не жил в России, но для меня твои слова о опросах звучат удивительно..
И что ты хочешь этим сказать? Что Левада-центр это независимая организация которая проводит опросы честно в сегодняшней России? Ты серьезно веришь в это? Сколько еще в России ты знаешь каких либо независимых организаций которые работают в России с общественным мнением. В медиа например, или социологических? То что Левада-центр никуда не вляпался за 40 лет для меня звучит как аргумент против их репутации. Любые независимые организации которые имеют какой то вес, и к которым прислушиваются подвергаются нападкам.
Если ты про NFKRZ то он в своём ролике просто рассказал про 3 показательных случая угнетения свобод в России. Во что тут верить? Каждые из этих случаев можно проверить. И более того читая новости я и сам на них натыкался, и на другие подобные вещи.
Не смотрю Шендеровича, не знаю о чем он говорит. Окей, давай предположим, что чисто теоретически Левада-центр действительно не врет. Хотя я не согласен с этим. Как это отменяет первые два пункта, о том что люди в целом врут, особенно при таких режимах и о том что большинство опрашиваемых не поддерживающих войну просто бы даже не стали отвечать на вопросы? Сам себя в этой ситуации представь. Мы говорим про систему которая сажает за слова.
Ну Гудков просто описал ситуацию с либералами в России, и я с этим в целом согласен, но там ничего удивительного нет. Авторитарная система будет сильнее разрозненного протестного движения, не надо быть гением что бы понять это. Даже куда более сильные протесты в Беларуси это показали. По результатам которых видимо и была написана статья.
Гудков это все еще апелляция к авторитету. Аристович например войну предсказал, и что это значит? Что он херни говорить не будет? Нет.
Я так не говорил. Я говорю о том что в данной тоталитарной системе мы не можем точно знать сколько людей войну не поддерживает. Я даже не уверен что её не поддерживает большинство. Но мы этого знать не можем. Чисто по моим наблюдениям это примерно равные три части, кто против, кто за, и "кто не разбирается и ему всё равно" что уже часто является обычной отговоркой для тех кто не хочет озвучивать свою позицию, хотя возможно им действительно всё равно. Но, возможно это чисто моё окружение. Плюс провинциальный город. И у меня нет какой то точной статистики. Так что это тоже по сути ничего не значит.
А это что значит? Молчание знак согласия? Если мы говорим чисто про их истинные убеждения, ты уверен что можешь так говорить о людях в России которые живут при этом режиме?
In 2016, the organization was given the status of a "foreign agent". The Levada Center violated the federal law “On Foreign Agents” because since 2012 it has received more than $120,000 from the United States fulfilling orders for the US Department of Defense.
Considering the results of the surveys, you gave a good argument in favor of the fact that the conduct of sociological surveys by Levada-Center is indeed unbiased.
This is not sarcasm. And the results of the Levada Center are roughly the same as the results of the state service WCIOM surveys.
So you don't believe that about 80% of the people support the war? You think there are fewer of them? Well, that's your opinion.
Or do you think that the Levada Center and the Russian state organization WCIOM surveys are lying?
To be honest, I don't know who the Levada Center is.
Detail fell for the "unbiased opinion" same as you,when you fit in for him when he mentioned the ovalny.
Also Detail wrote about "Левада-центр ни разу не вляпался в платные и фальсифицированные опросы"
A quick search turned up the opposite. Detail lied!
So yes, the Levada Center is lying.
Well, for your with that level of knowledge of Russian reality this is not surprising.
This is literally a lie. Whats wrong with you? When you admit that you were wrong it means that "fit in for him"?
Are you familiar with the principle of implication? Probably not... your research showed that you found the Levada Center to be a foreign agent. How does the fact that the Levada Center is recognized as a foreign agent mean that the Levada Center conducted paid and falsified polls? Why don't you understand that A doesn't imply B...
The status of a foreign agent in Russia is given to anyone, including a private person, if you say things that do not coincide with Russian propaganda. Therefore, this status is often a mark of quality of this person or organization.
And before that I wrote "it's strange that if the Levada Center is supposedly an independent organization, then why isn't it attacked by the Russian state", (it means it works for the Russian state), and you proved me wrong and it is being attacked so that means it dosent working for Russian state. At the same time, the Levada Center shows a high percentage of people who support the war, just like the Russian state WCIOM organization. So if you think that the Levada Center is lying you think that the level of support for the war is lower, which means that the Russian state WCIOM is aslo lying.
You haven't cited a single piece of evidence to prove this, so you're just a windbag.
@Aleksandr_124rus,Firstly I didn’t write to you, but you keep bumping into, I didn’t get a single answer from detail.
what doesn't suit you there I don't give a **** either.
Да. К ним ни у кого из уважаемых людей не было претензий. Европейский университет ещё есть. Есть хорошая лекция Кирилла Титаева (как раз из ЕУ) про социологию и опросы, и там сказано, кто и как врёт.
В плане опросов, поддерживают ли люди войну, даже если предположим, что люди смущаются и это даёт некоторую погрешность, всё равно если делать опросы регулярно, можно заметить динамику. Левада-центр проводил их регулярно, какие-то антивоенные настроения появились после мобилизации, но потом затихли. Не думаю, что Гудков тут врёт -- он как либерал из 80х годов с радостью бы сообщил, что настроения резко поменялись. Просто они себя и других социологов регулярно проверяют на смещения, на манипуляции или ошибки в опросах и им истина дороже.
Ну так их государство и объявило "иноагентами" ещё лет 7-8 назад.
Просто мы с тобой эту повестку про наказания за репосты и т.п. знаем, а средний человек с образованием ПТУ/техникум (таких примерно 50% населения) этим чаще всего не заморачивается. Гудкова спрашивали, стали ли меньше люди отвечать в опросах по сравнению с 2021 годом и ранее -- нет, не стали. Гудков как сам либерал точно бы отметил противоположное.
Его главный тезис там в том, что не изменилось массовое сознание, что оно как в СССР формировалось, так и формируется примерно теми же средствами в школе, армии и т.д., но либералы не хотели это замечать и рассчитывали, что общество станет подобным европейскому само собой.
Что касается Арестовича vs Гудков. У Арестовича нет системы, теории из которой он этот прогноз сделал -- это "чуйка". А Гудков измеряет мнения людей последовательно, по одной системе, причём индустрия опросов знает про возникающие искажения и в ней все проверяют себя и друг друга на корректность методов. Свою репутацию Гудков испортил бы если бы опубликовал "джинсу" с нарисованными цифрами, но такого не было. А его мнения и оценочные суждения -- с ними можно спорить.
Просто я видел и плохую науку и хорошую, и по тому, что говорит Гудков и Титаев, могу доверять их суждениям и результатам (естественно, зная, что есть погрешности).
Ну я видел как наползал путинский режим в начале нулевых, и как и многие тогда ушёл в частную жизнь, решив, что политика -- это грязь. Я их прекрасно понимаю, и претензий к тем, кто остаётся, у меня нет.
To others who can't read Russian, we discuss whether, how and if, polls/sociology (and in particular Levada Center) are trustworthy and indicate real life.
That's because you're not educated on social science. Get educated on them, or better take a masters degree course. You'll know a lot. You'll be able to distinguish propaganda from real careful research, demagogy from systematic observations. It takes effort, but it pays off.
I just feel sorry for people !!! My friend from Belarus wanted to study in Spain, but he was refused because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. I think it 's unfair !!! How can you blame and infringe on the common people . That's just terrible.
I believe its all to do with politics why this war started. Its all a bit cloudy, but the USA were involved with ukraines independance, and if the agreement wasnt broken, war would not have started.
I dont mind putin, hes just an old guy who is rich and powerful. i dont really care, i can just sit and laugh. war is not fun i get that, but like everthing it has pros and cons. the civilians and innocent ppl dying isnt so nice and i think government are to blame.
overall, no i dont hate russians, i like them. their accents and culture are interesting to say the least, and learning of their history as a country is good too.
If you mean conservatism, then I can agree, there can be cultural and traditional differences in different societies. Which are important to respect and not violate (as modern liberals like to do).
But if you mean totalitarianism, autocracy, absolute limitation of rights and freedoms. Then no, that's where you're wrong. I believe that all people have the right to be free, and have some inalienable rights and are entitled to liberty.
Yes, as I said before there are three sides to this conflict, in addition to Russia and Ukraine, there is also the West, led by the United States. All of these parties are doing the wrong things. The expansion of Nato in violation of agreements, supplying Ukraine and sponsoring the right-wing radicals was a provocation for russia. And many other things that are too long to list. Most likely the U.S. wanted to make an anti-Russian government in Ukraine and start a military conflict, (as is happening now in Taiwan) But Russia fell for this provocation, instead of acting smarter.
On the streets they go quite a few, if in small towns and villages, they are found there more often. The interesting thing about Ladas is the motorsport, they still participate in many competitions and for example in drifting. In winter drifting, they are generally considered the best car because they are light and the engine is just enough to effectively push road studded wheels on the ice. In the largest winter drift championship in the world - "Winter Drift Battle" (on stages reaches 100 participants and more from different countries) Lada is considered as unbeatable. And therefore there 98% of Ladas although any rear-wheel drive cars can participate.
You might think I'm exaggerating the scale of the problem.
But even if you look outside the context of the LFS, purely on YouTube I sometimes watch content on the type of prank in the omegle. And the authors of these channels are sometimes Russians. And over the last year a lot of people just get mad if they understand that you're Russian, start insulting and stuff like that.
Even on LFS events its same way, ands maybe even more, during the last year I participated in only a few events.
And then I have seen this behavior in the PiranMOTO events (in which we participated quite successfully), or at the last Soccar Cup, (which we were able to win), as well as yesterday on the Born To Race event, (but in the long race I still do not have enough skill😄)
Yesterday it was during races practice, but in the race itself he did not participate, I tried to calm down this guy and told him that he would speak out here on this thread, but for some reason there is still nothing. I hope he will speak out. I often see such comments on the servers, but when it comes to what would be a reasoned conversation on the forum for some reason here I see nothing here. More or less here everyone is sympathetic to the problem. And if its not, then they just do not answer😠
It is important to understand that I am against that these people were banned or somehow cancelled. I just want these people to start reasonable talking.
I guess you would say, I have strong opinions on this topic.
I've been aware of this situation for way longer than most [since 2012] in the West and all I can say is that in the beginning, I believed Russia to be the evil entity but over a very short space of time I realized the West caused the problem and don't want to accept the fact, and neither do the West's citizens.
We are imperialist by and large, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, the list goes on and on and on. Particularly, America has this obsession with sticking its fingers in everybody else's pies and then blaming the chefs for the pies being too hot and berating the customers because they complained the pies tasted like oil.
America and the West's obsession with this behaviour is just an extension of colonialism but the very same people who still harp on about colonialism to this day seem to want this war.
The west cries injustice about Ukraine having a Russian-puppet government only because they want to install their own Western-puppet government in its place.
What frightens me most is that many Western Citizens seem to be blood thirsty for war vs Russia whilst innocent civilians are caught in crossfire.
I mean people from my country [UK] have even gone to the Ukraine to join the foreign legions there... I mean for what? To fight a dick jousting competition between Russia and the West??
In the UK Russian businesses were attacked, vandalized, Russian people here have been marginalized as a result of this conflict, which is not in their control.
When people in the west realize they TOO are subject to propaganda, maybe peace resolutions can be found.
But it seems that even after catastrophes like Vietnam, people just refuse to learn from history.
In the end, drafted soldiers and innocent people will die, all because the West doesn't want to lose face.
Kids should not be involved in politics, yet in MY kids school they were all painting Ukrainian flags for example. So there is literally no difference in this. You're trying to highlight negative behaviour but ignoring it from "our" side [the west].
My German girlfriend told me in their school they had a day trip to go to a protest and she doesn't even remember what the protest was about because she was too young to take it in and it's bribing the children with a free day out of school to hold up a sign. It's abuse of children exploitation where-ever it happens, not just in Russia.
Yesterday there was a meeting of the United Nations in which a resolution on Russia was adopted. The UN resolution on Russian aggression against Ukraine and Georgia, 122 countries in particular China, and even pro-Russian Kazakhstan, India, Armenia, Turkey, and Brazil voted to support the resolution.
What kind of alliance are we talking about if one ally recognizes the other as an aggressor?
Edit: The funny thing is that before the war in Ukraine, the UN assessed Georgia's actions in the 2008 war differently, and that Georgia started the aggression first, while russia's retaliatory actions were too harsh.
I didn't want to respond to your comment because I generally agree with everything you said, propaganda is indeed everywhere, and most people are highly influenced by it. But it is important to understand propaganda from all sides and try not to be influenced by any one of them. but re-reading my gaze caught on the word "colonialism"
Colonialism...yes, it is true to some extent. Like with liberalism, bolshevism, fascism, totalitarianism, nazism... all these are a collection of practices and ideas to gain power, we can call them different words, but the party that gets the upper hand over the other players has the right to dictate their terms of play by right of the strong. All this leads to globalism. That's the way our world works. The strongest dictates how to behave, despite the fact that we all know it's wrong. Even if these practices, polities and idiologies are recognized by the strongest as being the best. You cannot dictate uniform rules simply because different people have different cultures, different traditions, different ways of living. But the strongest ones do not care. It just has to be accepted as a fact.
International law does not exist in essence, it is just a facade which can be changed to suit them, if "supporters" of international law need to violate it, they will quietly do this if they have enough power to do so.
I agree that it is stupid to talk about the policies of different countries from the perspective of good and evil. Each state has its own interests in the global arena. But if this state will lead on the global arena, it will dictate its terms of being on this arena.
And here the question already arises "what would be if?"
What would have happened if the Nazis had won and dictated their terms of being on this stage? Or the communists? Or the classical liberals? I don't know the answer to these questions, but I think that depending on a regime that spread their version of globalism to the entire world was a serious difference for the entire population of people.
Right now the world is ruled by left-liberals some of them are increasingly drawn to authoritarian practices in their countries. This was especially evident against the backdrop of covid events. But still there is even a large isolationist camp in U.S. politics right now. Generally no one listens to them, but nevertheless sometimes such things as withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan happen (although this is a bad example because the withdrawal was too abrupt, and immediately after that the Taliban took over and restored totalitarian order) Or even now supplies under the lend-lease from the U.S. are not carried out, although lend-lease was approved over a year ago, there is still no supply, and ukraine is suffering from it. Trump was a better isolationist than Biden with his 'America First" politics. But the elites didn't like it and the media removed him. So here and there are still some isolationist practices from some of the leaders. These factors still give us the right to think that this is not the worst version of globalism.
, sociologists do unbiased surveys, and the police know how to catch criminals, judges know how to punish defendants fairly. Officials in russia know how to take care of citizens and of course they don't take bribes...
