I think the scenery is more complicated than just technical development.
I have no doubts that both Ferrari and McLaren will be on top of their games when it comes to technical development for their cars, moratorium or not, ECU or not. The only manufacturer who will be able to approach their cars in terms of raw quality will be BMW with a very big "if" to Renault and RBR.
No. The real decider, I think, is the driver line-up.
At McLaren you've got Hamilton and Kovalainen - two very young blokes with tons of talents and a lot to prove, who will definitely be gunning for the title. They know they are in a top team with probably the top car. Team orders or not, Kovalainen will most likely do his best to threaten Hamilton. He has the skill. This puts pressure on Hamilton, which is likely to negatively influence his judgement at critical times during the season. Hamilton has already shown some recklessness and over-estimation of his own ability last year. I doubt these two drivers will be supporting each other very much.
Kimi and Massa, on the other hand, is a perfect 1-2 combination. Massa is very dominant when starting from pole, and Kimi can race under any conditions and get good results. Furthermore, his balanced and progressive driving style is probably going to suit the recent ban on electronic driving aids more than Hamilton's drifting style; at least in the early races of the season until everyone gets used to racing - and conserving their tyres - without TC. Massa knows his place in the team, and will support Kimi. If Massa isn't winning the race, he will be closely guarding Kimi's rear.
So there is a team with two drivers trying to clash with each other on the track at every opportunity, versus a team with two drivers with a clear hierarchy of leader and follower. I'd put money on the lead driver of the latter team.