I don't think Button will win, Kimi will take him on the first corner most likely, then i think the ferraris race pace will suffer which will hold him back quite a bit and the guys running a long first stint will have the advantage.
Safety cars only help people like Alonso and Nakajima(but doubt he can do anything as he is too shit) who are on outragously heavy loads.
Either Kimi and Button go off in first corner.
OR
Button lets Kimi through and jumps him at first pit stops, then "scampers off into the distance" (as Brundle-Fly would say).
Button will hold p1 thru t1, but Räikkönen will lose it coming out of the tunnel and rear end him. Barrichello will lose time in the pits and Vettel will win.
edit: lmao Brundle..
"I hear Bernie is here with his daughter.."
"Bernie, Bernie? Oh that's Geri Haliwell, that's not going to go down well"