Yeh Niko got held up with traffic on his best lap, so I think he will be climbing. Renault are catching up with BMW now, so I expect they are actually fueled for a long first stint. I think if LH survives lap 1 then he should cut through easily enough, until he gets to the BMW's, then it will be harder but maybe not as hard as Massa had it.
Alonso or Kimi will win I rekon, but you never know, which is a great thing to say about F1...I remember when it was already decided who would win, Schumacher in the Ferrari.