Hamilton failure was due to running off the track earlier in session, so not entirelly random.
If FP1/2 are a reasonably accurate measure of where the cars are you really have to question McLaren's decision to go for a new design concept, despite ending the year with the fastest car last year. RedBull potentially had hit the developmental ceiling with the RB8, but stuck with it and are probably leagues ahead of anyone.
Any focussing on Mercedes. hamilton, despite them being his reportred 3rd choice, may have lucked out big time haha. Though coming out of the box fast was something they did last year, but still ended up shit slow.